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Invesaro publishes investment theses and settles them against the market in public: with a date, a basket of companies and a verdict.

Investment thesis

Nuclear power's real bottleneck isn't uranium, it's Western enrichment capacity after the Russian import ban

LivePublished July 8, 2026180-day horizonregulation
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In short

  1. What is happening
    US ban on imports of Russian enriched uranium
  2. Why it matters
    The bottleneck in nuclear isn't uranium, it's Western enrichment: the Russian import ban is driving up SWU prices and enrichers' margins.
  3. Who benefits
    Centrus Energy, Cameco, Silex Systems
  4. What must hold
    Assumptions are statements that must stay true for the thesis to make sense.
    Assumptions: 5. See the assumptions
  5. When is the verdict
    The horizon is the time we give a thesis. That many days after publication we settle it: we compare the basket of companies with the market benchmark and give a verdict.
    January 4, 2027, 180 days after publication
  6. Our score at publication
    A score from 0 to 100 given on the day of publication, before the market has verified anything. On the results page we check in public whether higher-scored theses do better.
    64 out of 100
Basket return
-4.8%
equal weight, since publication
The market over the same window
+1.3%
benchmark for this basket
Edge over the market
-6.1%
in percentage points

Companies in the basket

LEUCentrus EnergyCCJCamecoSLXSilex Systems

The argument

The market looks at nuclear power through the lens of the uranium price, but the real bottleneck in the fuel cycle sits further downstream: in conversion (UF6) and enrichment (a service measured in SWU). That is where the structural shortage is concentrated, and its source is policy, not geology.

The US law banning imports of Russian enriched uranium (2024) cuts off a supplier that provided roughly one quarter to one third of American enrichment services. Russia responded with export restrictions. Western capacity (Urenco, Orano) is limited and takes years to expand, not quarters. The result: SWU and UF6 conversion prices have shot up to multi-year highs, and enrichment plants can sign long-term contracts on steadily better terms.

What this thesis rests on

Each one is a statement that has to be true. We go back to every live thesis on a schedule and check these against public sources, so each leg carries either what we found or the date we look next.

Archive: reviews of this thesis are paused. Last review September 17, 2026.

  1. The US ban on Russian enriched uranium imports stays in force through 4 January 2027, with no new DOE waivers issued for Russian SWU deliveries to US utilities beyond the pre-2028 exemptions already granted.

    regulatory · Open

    Checked September 17, 2026, nothing published either way

  2. The average SWU price indicator reported in Centrus and Cameco filings stays above $150 per SWU in the two quarterly reports after publication.

    financial · Open

    Checked September 17, 2026, nothing published either way

  3. Centrus keeps its DOE HALEU operation contract at Piketon through 4 January 2027, with no termination or descoping announced on an 8-K and at least one follow-on option period exercised.

    operational · Challenged

    A source challenges this · August 31, 2026

    Centrus Q2 2026 release, 5 Aug 2026: DOE has communicated it does not intend to exercise further options under the HALEU Operation Contract, and the proposed FY2027 DOE budget includes no funding to operate the HALEU cascade, removing about $0.8bn of the $4.5bn Technical Solutions backlog. Operation-contract revenue fell to $22.7m from $28.8m a year earlier.

    See the source

  4. Neither Urenco nor Orano starts commercial operation of new Western enrichment capacity before 4 January 2027; announced Eunice and Tricastin expansions add no operating SWU in that window.

    competitive · Open

    Checked September 17, 2026, nothing published either way

  5. Cameco's average realized UF6 conversion price stays above $35 per kgU in its next two quarterly reports, with Port Hope output at or above 12,000 tonnes UF6 annualized.

    financial · Supported

    A source confirms this · August 31, 2026

    Cameco Q2 2026 report, 31 Jul 2026: fuel services average realized price Cdn$41.67/kgU (Cdn$36.79 in Q2 2025), above the $35 threshold; fuel services production 3.0m kgU in the quarter, an annualised 12m kgU (~12,000 tU), with 13-14m kgU guided for the year. This is the first of the two reports the claim covers; Q3 2026 is not yet reported.

    See the source
Show the causal chain step by step
  1. US ban on imports of Russian enriched uranium
  2. Rising demand: reactor life extensions and SMR/HALEU
  3. Limited Western enrichment and conversion capacity
  4. SWU and UF6 conversion prices spiking
  5. Long-term contracts and higher margins for Western enrichers
  6. Centrus (LEU)
  7. Cameco (CCJ)
  8. Silex (SLX)

This thesis, over time

What has happened since publication. Every entry is computed as of its own date, from price history.

October 6, 2026

Day 90 of 180: basket -4.8%

The thesis is halfway to its verdict. The equal-weight basket stands at -4.8% since publication day. The benchmark (S&P 500) returned +1.3% over the same window, so the basket trails its market by 6.1 percentage points. The strongest contributor is LEU (+2.2%), the weakest is SLX (-13.4%). 90 days remain until the verdict.

September 17, 2026

Review on day 71: nothing moved

We went back to this thesis on day 71 of 180 and checked each of its 5 assumptions against public sources. No news either way: 5. The equal-weight basket stands at -4.8% since publication day. The benchmark (.INX) returned +1.3% over the same window, so the basket trails its market by 6.1 percentage points. 109 days remain until the verdict.

August 31, 2026

Review: 1 of 5 assumptions broken

We went back to this thesis on day 54 of 180 and checked each of its 5 assumptions against public sources. Broken by the sources: 1. Confirmed by the sources: 1. No news either way: 3. The equal-weight basket stands at +9.8% since publication day. The benchmark (.INX) returned +3.1% over the same window, so the basket is ahead of its market by 6.8 percentage points. 126 days remain until the verdict.

August 25, 2026

Basket crossed +10% since publication

This basket is at +10.1% since publication, 48 days after the thesis was posted. The benchmark (S&P 500) returned +2.5% over the same window, so the basket is ahead of its market by 7.5 percentage points. The strongest contributor is CCJ (+13.6%), the weakest is LEU (+5.1%). This is not a change of status: the horizon keeps running and the verdict only lands once it expires.

August 22, 2026

Day 45 of 180: basket +4.6%

The first quarter of the horizon is behind this thesis. The equal-weight basket stands at +4.6% since publication day. The benchmark (S&P 500) returned +2.6% over the same window, so the basket is ahead of its market by 2.0 percentage points. The strongest contributor is CCJ (+8.3%), the weakest is SLX (+0.8%). 135 days remain until the verdict.

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This is analysis, not investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. We publish it and track it in public, mistakes included. Any decision is yours and yours alone.