El verdadero cuello de botella de la energía nuclear no es el uranio, sino la capacidad occidental de enriquecimiento tras la prohibición de importar desde Rusia

El cuello de botella nuclear no es el uranio, sino el enriquecimiento occidental: la prohibición de importar desde Rusia dispara los precios del SWU y los márgenes de los enriquecedores.

Publicada el 8 de julio de 2026 · horizonte de 180 días · regulación

What this thesis rests on

Each one is a statement that has to be true. We go back to every live thesis on a schedule and check these against public sources, so each leg carries either what we found or the date we look next.

Checked every 14 days. The first review of this thesis is past due and sits in the queue.

1. ○

   The US ban on Russian enriched uranium imports stays in force through 4 January 2027, with no new DOE waivers issued for Russian SWU deliveries to US utilities beyond the pre-2028 exemptions already granted.

   regulatory · Open

   First check is past due, the thesis is in the queue

2. ○

   The average SWU price indicator reported in Centrus and Cameco filings stays above $150 per SWU in the two quarterly reports after publication.

   financial · Open

   First check is past due, the thesis is in the queue

3. ○

   Centrus keeps its DOE HALEU operation contract at Piketon through 4 January 2027, with no termination or descoping announced on an 8-K and at least one follow-on option period exercised.

   operational · Open

   First check is past due, the thesis is in the queue

4. ○

   Neither Urenco nor Orano starts commercial operation of new Western enrichment capacity before 4 January 2027; announced Eunice and Tricastin expansions add no operating SWU in that window.

   competitive · Open

   First check is past due, the thesis is in the queue

5. ○

   Cameco's average realized UF6 conversion price stays above $35 per kgU in its next two quarterly reports, with Port Hope output at or above 12,000 tonnes UF6 annualized.

   financial · Open

   First check is past due, the thesis is in the queue

Assumptions are written in English, because that is the language of most of the sources we check them against.

Diario de esta tesis

Qué ha pasado desde la publicación. Cada entrada se calcula a su propia fecha, a partir del historial de precios.

This is analysis, not investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. We publish it and track it in public, mistakes included. Any decision is yours and yours alone.