How our theses are doing
The full public record. Every thesis is compared with the benchmark of its own market, measured from the publication date, because a return without a reference point proves nothing.
This is where you check whether our theses beat the market. You can open and read every one of them.
See the thesesOur theses against the market
Performance by edge score
The edge score is assigned on publication day, before the market verifies anything. This table is the test of whether that score means anything.
| Score | Theses | Avg. return | Avg. edge | Beats market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Worth watching | 35 | +2.0% | +1.8% | 54% |
| Strong signal | 19 | -4.5% | -3.5% | 21% |
| On the radar | 3 | -7.2% | -7.9% | 0% |
Performance by thesis type
| Thesis type | Theses | Avg. return | Avg. edge | Beats market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| supply and demand | 23 | -1.1% | -1.0% | 48% |
| regulation | 12 | +1.2% | +1.6% | 33% |
| geopolitics | 8 | +0.6% | +0.8% | 50% |
| catalyst | 7 | -1.5% | -1.1% | 29% |
| technology | 4 | -5.2% | -5.5% | 25% |
| macro | 3 | -0.2% | +0.5% | 33% |
Distribution of outcomes
| Range | Theses |
|---|---|
| below -20% | 1 |
| -20% to -10% | 7 |
| -10% to 0% | 26 |
| 0% to 10% | 16 |
| 10% to 20% | 4 |
| above 20% | 3 |
The extremes
The AI revolution's glass ceiling is literal: low-loss laminate fabric sold out through 2027
Best result: +29.8%, edge over the market +28.6%.
New jet engines are still causing problems, driving a historic boom in the aftermarket for parts and MRO services
Worst result: -28.2%, behind the market -28.8%. It stays in the record permanently.
Methodology, no asterisks
Each thesis basket is equal weighted, measured from the price on publication day, in the listing currency and excluding dividends. The reference price is written once and never adjusted retroactively.
The benchmark is chosen to match the market the basket trades on: a domestic index for a single-market basket, a global index for one spread across regions. The comparison runs over exactly the same window as the thesis. For mixed baskets part of the gap to the benchmark comes from currency moves rather than stock picking.
No thesis has reached the end of its horizon yet, so we publish no hit rate. Until then the only honest measure is the live performance above.
Benchmarks in use: S&P 500 (56), Euro Stoxx 50 (2), TOPIX (2), KOSPI 200 (2), FTSE 100 (2).
See the theses behind these numbers
Each with a publication date, a causal map and a score assigned before the market ruled.
See all theses