Netflix won the streaming war, but that's not what we're playing. What interests us is the point at which the company stops competing purely on subscriber count and starts squeezing more revenue out of each one.
Two levers are doing the work here: the cheaper ad-supported plan, which opens up an entirely new revenue pool, and the clean-up of account sharing, which converts free viewers into paying ones. Both are already rolled out and only now starting to scale.
What would change our mind: if revenue per user stopped growing despite these levers, the thesis falls apart. That's the number we track in every quarterly report.