Companies / MDLZ
NASDAQMondelez International (MDLZ) in our theses
Mondelez International appears in one of our theses. Below is why it entered the basket and how it has done since publication.
The Burst Cocoa Bubble: Cheap Beans Are Just Arriving at Chocolate Factories, While Shelf Price Hikes Are Here to Stay
The cocoa price crash feeds into chocolate makers' cost structures from H2 2026 due to hedging lag, turning sticky retail prices into an aggressive margin expansion.
Why this company: Chocolate (Milka, Cadbury) represents roughly one-third of group revenue. Management highlighted 2026 as the bottom, anticipating strong EPS recovery in 2027; 2027 hedges are being secured at cocoa prices less than half their peak.
Where these numbers come from
The reference price is recorded on the thesis publication date and never changed afterwards. The current price is refreshed several times a day. Returns are in the listing currency and exclude dividends, so for dividend payers the real total return was somewhat higher.
This is not a recommendation to buy or sell. A company enters a basket as a beneficiary of the mechanism described in the thesis, and the full argument is on each thesis page.
See all of our theses
Each with a publication date, a causal map and a score assigned before the market ruled.
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