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Stocks MDLZ DCF valuation

DCF valuation

What is Mondelez International, Inc. worth?

With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Mondelez International, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $40.06 per share. The share price was $60.25 on September 25, 2026, 50% above that value.

Inputs from the filings

Free cash flow, fiscal 2025
$3.24B
Average free cash flow, last 5 years
$3.31B
Cash
$1.63B
balance sheet of March 31, 2026
Debt
$18.14B
balance sheet of March 31, 2026
Diluted shares, fiscal 2025
1,298,000,000
Revenue growth per year, last 5 years
7.7%

Three sets of assumptions

CaseGrowth yrs 1-5Growth yrs 6-10After year 10Discount rateValue per shareValue vs price
Bear2.5%2.5%2.0%10.0%$20.21-66%
Base7.5%5.0%2.5%9.0%$40.06-34%
Bull12.5%8.0%3.0%8.0%$79.64+32%

Sensitivity: base case value per share

Discount rate down the side, growth after year 10 across the top. Everything else as in the base case.

1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
7.0%$54.81$59.33$64.85$71.75$80.62
8.0%$43.80$46.72$50.19$54.34$59.42
9.0%$35.75$37.75$40.06$42.76$45.94
10.0%$29.62$31.05$32.66$34.50$36.63
11.0%$24.81$25.85$27.02$28.33$29.82

Where the presets come from

Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Mondelez International, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (7.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.

Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.

Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.

This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.

Adjust the assumptions

Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.

Adjust the assumptions

Mondelez International, Inc. company page