The world has entered its largest power grid expansion in decades. Germany is constructing thousands of kilometers of underground HVDC corridors from north to south (SuedLink, SuedOstLink), Dutch grid operator TenneT has launched a multi-year, tens-of-billions-of-euros 2 GW offshore wind grid connection program, cross-border interconnectors are proliferating, and a major new demand driver has emerged: ultra-high-capacity connections for AI data centers. The International Energy Agency has repeatedly stated that grid investments must roughly double for global electrification targets to be achievable. All these projects share a single critical denominator: extra-high-voltage transmission cables.
Supply is structurally incapable of keeping pace. This is not due to lack of ambition, but severe structural moats. HVDC cables, particularly subsea variants, cannot be produced in standard industrial facilities: they require vertical extrusion towers over 100 meters tall and direct deepwater port access, with greenfield factory construction taking 4 to 5 years. The global fleet of specialized cable-laying vessels can be counted on two hands, and transmission system operators (TSOs) mandate years of technological qualification and proven track records, given that a subsea link failure costs hundreds of millions of euros. Consequently, the market is served by a tight oligopoly: Prysmian, Nexans, and NKT in Europe, along with Sumitomo Electric and LS Cable in Asia, with European capacity effectively sold out through the end of the decade.