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Invesaro publishes investment theses and settles them against the market in public: with a date, a basket of companies and a verdict.

Investment thesis

Washington got its Greenland base deal, and above 81 degrees north the geostationary sky is empty

LivePublished September 20, 2026180-day horizongeopolitics
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In short

  1. What is happening
    Denmark and Greenland say the new US military agreement will not compromise Greenland's sovereignty
  2. Why it matters
    A US military agreement in Greenland pushes operations above 76N, where geostationary satcom physically fails, routing Arctic bandwidth to polar constellations.
  3. Who benefits
    Iridium Communications, Eutelsat Communications, Gilat Satellite Networks
  4. What must hold
    Assumptions are statements that must stay true for the thesis to make sense.
    Assumptions: 5. See the assumptions
  5. When is the verdict
    The horizon is the time we give a thesis. That many days after publication we settle it: we compare the basket of companies with the market benchmark and give a verdict.
    March 19, 2027, 180 days after publication
  6. Our score at publication
    A score from 0 to 100 given on the day of publication, before the market has verified anything. On the results page we check in public whether higher-scored theses do better.
    54 out of 100

Companies in the basket

IRDMIridium CommunicationsETLEutelsat CommunicationsGILTGilat Satellite Networks

The argument

Denmark and Greenland spent the weekend reassuring their publics that the new military agreement with Washington leaves Greenlandic sovereignty intact. The investable content of that agreement is not sovereignty, it is geography. Pituffik Space Base sits at 76.5 degrees north. The Thule area radars, the Arctic air corridors, the surface patrols that a larger US presence implies, and the Danish and Norwegian units that operate alongside them, all work in a band of the planet where the standard commercial and military satellite architecture stops functioning.

The reason is orbital mechanics, not budgets. A geostationary satellite parks over the equator, so as you move north its elevation angle collapses. Past roughly 70 degrees north the link is degraded by low look angles, terrain masking and rain path length, and at 81.3 degrees north the satellite is below the horizon entirely. The US military's own Wideband Global SATCOM workhorse thins out well before the high Arctic, which is exactly why polar communications has historically been handled with narrowband, hosted payloads and improvisation. You cannot fix this with a bigger dish or a cheaper transponder. The only architectures that close the link are highly inclined ones: satellites in near-polar orbits that actually fly over the top of the world.

What this thesis rests on

Each one is a statement that has to be true. We go back to every live thesis on a schedule and check these against public sources, so each leg carries either what we found or the date we look next.

Archive: reviews of this thesis are paused.

  1. Iridium's EMSS contract with the US Space Force is extended, renewed or replaced by a successor award disclosed in an Iridium 8-K, 10-Q or 10-K filed before 31 March 2027.

    operational · Open

    First check is past due, the thesis is in the queue

  2. Iridium reports government service revenue of at least $110 million for fiscal 2026 in its annual report.

    financial · Open

    First check is past due, the thesis is in the queue

  3. Iridium keeps at least 60 satellites in operational service in its 86 degree inclination constellation, with no service-affecting coverage gap disclosed through the horizon.

    operational · Open

    First check is past due, the thesis is in the queue

  4. Eutelsat discloses at least one new government or defense connectivity contract using OneWeb capacity in results or official releases published before 31 March 2027.

    competitive · Open

    First check is past due, the thesis is in the queue

  5. Gilat reports total fiscal 2026 revenue of at least $400 million, with its Defense division still reported as a separate revenue line.

    financial · Open

    First check is past due, the thesis is in the queue

Show the causal chain step by step
  1. US military agreement expands Greenland footprint
  2. NATO Arctic patrols above 70N become routine
  3. Geostationary satellites fall below the horizon at 81N
  4. Military wideband coverage thins out well before the high Arctic
  5. Only near-polar constellations can close the link
  6. Arctic capacity becomes a standing contracted subscription
  7. Fast-moving satellites force tracking and multi-orbit terminals
  8. Iridium, Eutelsat OneWeb, Gilat defense

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This is analysis, not investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. We publish it and track it in public, mistakes included. Any decision is yours and yours alone.