Invesaro

Invesaro publishes investment theses and settles them against the market in public: with a date, a basket of companies and a verdict.

Investment thesis

Bond markets buckle under AI's funding needs, and the toll is collected per deal by the ratings oligopoly

LivePublished August 19, 2026150-day horizonmacro
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In short

  1. What is happening
    Bonds under pressure: rising oil prices, widening deficits and the funding needs of AI companies
  2. Why it matters
    AI capex is now pre-committed and debt-funded, so higher yields raise the price of borrowing but not the volume, and ratings fees are levied on volume.
  3. Who benefits
    Moody's Corporation, S&P Global, Morningstar, Computershare
  4. What must hold
    Assumptions are statements that must stay true for the thesis to make sense.
    Assumptions: 5. See the assumptions
  5. When is the verdict
    The horizon is the time we give a thesis. That many days after publication we settle it: we compare the basket of companies with the market benchmark and give a verdict.
    January 16, 2027, 150 days after publication
  6. Our score at publication
    A score from 0 to 100 given on the day of publication, before the market has verified anything. On the results page we check in public whether higher-scored theses do better.
    50 out of 100
Basket return
-1.5%
equal weight, since publication
The market over the same window
-1.4%
benchmark for this basket
Edge over the market
-0.0%
in percentage points

Companies in the basket

MCOMoody's CorporationSPGIS&P GlobalMORNMorningstarCPUComputershare

The argument

The marginal dollar of AI is now borrowed

For three years the AI buildout was paid for out of operating cash flow. That stopped. Hyperscaler capital spending has outgrown internally generated cash, and the gap is being closed in the credit markets: jumbo investment grade deals from the largest platforms, high yield and convertible paper from the neocloud tier, and a fast growing structured market where data centers are financed as asset backed securities and CMBS against long leases with investment grade tenants. Today's bond market wobble, driven by oil, deficits and, explicitly, the funding needs of AI companies, is the market pricing that new supply.

What this thesis rests on

Each one is a statement that has to be true. We go back to every live thesis on a schedule and check these against public sources, so each leg carries either what we found or the date we look next.

Archive: reviews of this thesis are paused. Last review September 18, 2026.

  1. Moody's Investors Service transaction revenue rises at least 10 percent year over year in each of the two quarterly reports following publication.

    financial · Open

    Checked September 18, 2026, nothing published either way

  2. Morningstar Credit (DBRS) revenue rises at least 15 percent year over year in the next two reported quarters.

    financial · Open

    Checked September 18, 2026, nothing published either way

  3. Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle together issue at least 40 billion dollars of new corporate bonds between publication and 31 March 2027.

    financial · Supported

    A source confirms this · September 18, 2026

    Amazon 8-K filed 14 Sep 2026 reports closing of GBP4.25bn of sterling senior notes (GBP1.25bn 5.200% 2029, GBP1bn each 5.550% 2032, 6.250% 2038, 6.650% 2045), offering price GBP4.242bn, roughly $5.8bn, the first issuance by any of the five names after the 19 Aug publication date.

    See the source

  4. US data center asset backed and CMBS issuance exceeds 25 billion dollars in the twelve months after publication.

    financial · Open

    Checked September 18, 2026, nothing published either way

  5. Computershare announces no sale, spin off or material divestment of its US Corporate Trust business before 31 March 2027.

    operational · Open

    Checked September 18, 2026, nothing published either way

Show the causal chain step by step
  1. AI capex outgrows hyperscaler operating cash flow
  2. Yields rise on deficits and oil
  3. Capex is pre-committed, so borrowing is inelastic to cost
  4. Funding shifts to bonds, data center ABS and CMBS
  5. Ratings and trustee fees are charged per deal on notional
  6. Transaction linked revenue steps up
  7. Ratings and corporate trust franchises

This thesis, over time

What has happened since publication. Every entry is computed as of its own date, from price history.

September 25, 2026

Day 38 of 150: basket -1.5%

The first quarter of the horizon is behind this thesis. The equal-weight basket stands at -1.5% since publication day. The benchmark (S&P 500) returned -1.4% over the same window, so the thesis is moving with its market. The strongest contributor is CPU (+2.0%), the weakest is MCO (-3.2%). 112 days remain until the verdict.

September 18, 2026

Review: 1 of 5 assumptions confirmed

We went back to this thesis on day 30 of 150 and checked each of its 5 assumptions against public sources. Confirmed by the sources: 1. No news either way: 4. The equal-weight basket stands at -1.5% since publication day. The benchmark (.INX) returned -1.4% over the same window, so the thesis is moving with its market. 120 days remain until the verdict.

September 3, 2026

Review on day 15: nothing moved

We went back to this thesis on day 15 of 150 and checked each of its 5 assumptions against public sources. No news either way: 5. The equal-weight basket stands at +1.8% since publication day. The benchmark (.INX) returned -0.3% over the same window, so the basket is ahead of its market by 2.1 percentage points. 135 days remain until the verdict.

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This is analysis, not investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. We publish it and track it in public, mistakes included. Any decision is yours and yours alone.