What is Marathon Petroleum Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Marathon Petroleum Corp's reported free cash flow gives $384.75 per share. The share price was $393.52 on September 25, 2026, 2% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 8.5% | 10.0% | $206.24 | -48% |
| Base | 13.5% | 9.0% | $384.75 | -2% |
| Bull | 18.5% | 8.0% | $740.35 | +88% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $522.05 | $564.68 | $616.80 | $681.94 | $765.70 |
| 8.0% | $419.04 | $446.69 | $479.37 | $518.58 | $566.51 |
| 9.0% | $344.03 | $362.93 | $384.75 | $410.20 | $440.27 |
| 10.0% | $287.10 | $300.54 | $315.78 | $333.19 | $353.29 |
| 11.0% | $242.51 | $252.37 | $263.39 | $275.78 | $289.82 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Marathon Petroleum Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (13.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions