What is Mercury General Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Mercury General Corp's reported free cash flow gives $455.53 per share. The share price was $84.21 on November 10, 2026, 82% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 4.5% | 10.0% | $288.33 | +242% |
| Base | 9.5% | 9.0% | $455.53 | +441% |
| Bull | 14.5% | 8.0% | $788.85 | +837% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $581.30 | $619.99 | $667.29 | $726.41 | $802.42 |
| 8.0% | $487.22 | $512.31 | $541.97 | $577.56 | $621.05 |
| 9.0% | $418.58 | $435.74 | $455.53 | $478.63 | $505.93 |
| 10.0% | $366.38 | $378.58 | $392.41 | $408.21 | $426.45 |
| 11.0% | $325.41 | $334.35 | $344.35 | $355.60 | $368.34 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Mercury General Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (9.6% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions