What is Mercury General Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Mercury General Corp's reported free cash flow gives $455.91 per share. The share price was $99.41 on September 25, 2026, 78% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 4.5% | 10.0% | $288.71 | +190% |
| Base | 9.5% | 9.0% | $455.91 | +359% |
| Bull | 14.5% | 8.0% | $789.23 | +694% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $581.67 | $620.37 | $667.67 | $726.79 | $802.80 |
| 8.0% | $487.59 | $512.69 | $542.34 | $577.93 | $621.43 |
| 9.0% | $418.95 | $436.11 | $455.91 | $479.01 | $506.30 |
| 10.0% | $366.76 | $378.96 | $392.79 | $408.59 | $426.82 |
| 11.0% | $325.78 | $334.73 | $344.73 | $355.97 | $368.72 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Mercury General Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (9.6% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions