What is Essent Group Ltd. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Essent Group Ltd.'s reported free cash flow gives $160.49 per share. The share price was $63.73 on September 25, 2026, 60% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 0.5% | 10.0% | $100.79 | +58% |
| Base | 5.5% | 9.0% | $160.49 | +152% |
| Bull | 10.5% | 8.0% | $279.54 | +339% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $204.32 | $217.66 | $233.97 | $254.36 | $280.57 |
| 8.0% | $171.64 | $180.30 | $190.52 | $202.79 | $217.79 |
| 9.0% | $147.75 | $153.67 | $160.49 | $168.46 | $177.87 |
| 10.0% | $129.54 | $133.75 | $138.52 | $143.96 | $150.25 |
| 11.0% | $115.21 | $118.29 | $121.74 | $125.62 | $130.02 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Essent Group Ltd.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (5.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions