What is Essent Group Ltd. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Essent Group Ltd.'s reported free cash flow gives $161.36 per share. The share price was $65.76 on November 9, 2026, 59% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 0.5% | 10.0% | $101.65 | +55% |
| Base | 5.5% | 9.0% | $161.36 | +145% |
| Bull | 10.5% | 8.0% | $280.40 | +326% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $205.18 | $218.53 | $234.83 | $255.22 | $281.43 |
| 8.0% | $172.51 | $181.16 | $191.39 | $203.66 | $218.66 |
| 9.0% | $148.61 | $154.53 | $161.36 | $169.32 | $178.73 |
| 10.0% | $130.40 | $134.61 | $139.38 | $144.83 | $151.12 |
| 11.0% | $116.07 | $119.16 | $122.61 | $126.48 | $130.88 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Essent Group Ltd.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (5.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions