Investment thesis · Live
America is revoking visas at a record pace, and the work it pushes offshore lands in Indian office towers
Record US visa revocations do not delete the work, they relocate it: India's Grade-A office landlords, not IT services, end up collecting the rent.
Published August 25, 2026 · 180-day horizon · regulation
Causal chain: Record US visa revocations and the USD 100,000 H-1B fee → Staffing a role on US soil becomes costly and unpredictable → Multinationals expand India-based Global Capability Centres → Record Grade-A office absorption in Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Pune → Vacancy tightens, rents reset upward on renewal and escalation → Listed office REITs collect the rent → Developers capture the same demand earlier via pre-leasing
What this thesis rests on
Each one is a statement that has to be true. When a filing says otherwise, the thesis is in trouble, and this is where we say so.
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Embassy Office Parks REIT reports committed occupancy of at least 88% in every quarterly result published within the horizon.
operational · Unverified
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Mindspace Business Parks REIT records at least 1.2 million square feet of gross leasing in each of the two quarterly results published after publication.
operational · Unverified
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The United States keeps the USD 100,000 supplemental fee on new H-1B petitions in force, without repeal or a final court order voiding it, through the horizon.
regulatory · Unverified
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Brookfield India Real Estate Trust reports year on year growth in net operating income of at least 5% in its next reported quarter.
financial · Unverified
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Prestige Estates Projects announces at least one new office leasing or pre-leasing commitment of 500,000 square feet or more during the horizon.
competitive · Unverified
The driver: staffing on US soil is being priced out
The current administration has moved from rhetoric to administrative reality: record numbers of visa revocations, tighter adjudication across employment and visitor categories, and a supplemental fee on new H-1B petitions large enough to change the arithmetic of a staffing plan. Courts have so far let the machinery run. For a multinational that has spent two decades rotating engineers, analysts and support staff into US offices, the onshore option has not become impossible, it has become expensive and unpredictable, which for a planning department is worse.
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