Invesaro publishes investment theses and settles them against the market in public: with a date, a basket of companies and a verdict.

Investment thesis

America is revoking visas at a record pace, and the work it pushes offshore lands in Indian office towers

LivePublished August 25, 2026180-day horizonregulation

Watch this thesis

In short

What is happening
Trump hardens the line: record visa revocations in US history
Why it matters
Record US visa revocations do not delete the work, they relocate it: India's Grade-A office landlords, not IT services, end up collecting the rent.
Who benefits
Embassy Office Parks REIT, Mindspace Business Parks REIT, Brookfield India Real Estate Trust, Prestige Estates Projects
What must hold
Assumptions are statements that must stay true for the thesis to make sense.
Assumptions: 5. See the assumptions
When is the verdict
The horizon is the time we give a thesis. That many days after publication we settle it: we compare the basket of companies with the market benchmark and give a verdict.
February 21, 2027, 180 days after publication
Our score at publication
A score from 0 to 100 given on the day of publication, before the market has verified anything. On the results page we check in public whether higher-scored theses do better.
65 out of 100

Basket return

-4.9%

equal weight, since publication

The market over the same window

-0.9%

benchmark for this basket

Edge over the market

-3.9%

in percentage points

Companies in the basket

EMBASSYEmbassy Office Parks REIT MINDSPACEMindspace Business Parks REIT BIRETBrookfield India Real Estate Trust PRESTIGEPrestige Estates Projects

The argument

The driver: staffing on US soil is being priced out

The current administration has moved from rhetoric to administrative reality: record numbers of visa revocations, tighter adjudication across employment and visitor categories, and a supplemental fee on new H-1B petitions large enough to change the arithmetic of a staffing plan. Courts have so far let the machinery run. For a multinational that has spent two decades rotating engineers, analysts and support staff into US offices, the onshore option has not become impossible, it has become expensive and unpredictable, which for a planning department is worse.

What this thesis rests on

Each one is a statement that has to be true. We go back to every live thesis on a schedule and check these against public sources, so each leg carries either what we found or the date we look next.

Archive: reviews of this thesis are paused. Last review September 24, 2026.

Embassy Office Parks REIT reports committed occupancy of at least 88% in every quarterly result published within the horizon.
operational · Open
Checked September 24, 2026, nothing published either way
Mindspace Business Parks REIT records at least 1.2 million square feet of gross leasing in each of the two quarterly results published after publication.
operational · Open
Checked September 24, 2026, nothing published either way
The United States keeps the USD 100,000 supplemental fee on new H-1B petitions in force, without repeal or a final court order voiding it, through the horizon.
regulatory · Supported

A source confirms this · September 24, 2026

A proclamation of 18 Sep 2026 extended the $100,000 H-1B payment requirement through 21 Sep 2027, so no repeal. The 8 June district-court vacatur still stands and USCIS remains barred from collecting, but the First Circuit denied a stay on 24 July and has not ruled on the merits, so there is no final order voiding the fee.
See the source
Brookfield India Real Estate Trust reports year on year growth in net operating income of at least 5% in its next reported quarter.
financial · Open
Checked September 24, 2026, nothing published either way
Prestige Estates Projects announces at least one new office leasing or pre-leasing commitment of 500,000 square feet or more during the horizon.
competitive · Open
Checked September 24, 2026, nothing published either way

Show the causal chain step by step

Record US visa revocations and the USD 100,000 H-1B fee
Staffing a role on US soil becomes costly and unpredictable
Multinationals expand India-based Global Capability Centres
Record Grade-A office absorption in Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Pune
Vacancy tightens, rents reset upward on renewal and escalation
Listed office REITs collect the rent
Developers capture the same demand earlier via pre-leasing

This thesis, over time

What has happened since publication. Every entry is computed as of its own date, from price history.

October 9, 2026

Day 45 of 180: basket -4.9%

The first quarter of the horizon is behind this thesis. The equal-weight basket stands at -4.9% since publication day. The benchmark (S&P 500) returned -0.9% over the same window, so the basket trails its market by 3.9 percentage points. The strongest contributor is MINDSPACE (-2.8%), the weakest is PRESTIGE (-11.0%). 135 days remain until the verdict.

September 24, 2026

Review: 1 of 5 assumptions confirmed

We went back to this thesis on day 30 of 180 and checked each of its 5 assumptions against public sources. Confirmed by the sources: 1. No news either way: 4. The equal-weight basket stands at -4.9% since publication day. The benchmark (.INX) returned -0.9% over the same window, so the basket trails its market by 3.9 percentage points. 150 days remain until the verdict.

September 9, 2026

Review: 1 of 5 assumptions broken

We went back to this thesis on day 15 of 180 and checked each of its 5 assumptions against public sources. Broken by the sources: 1. No news either way: 4. The equal-weight basket stands at -1.8% since publication day. The benchmark (.INX) returned +0.3% over the same window, so the basket trails its market by 2.1 percentage points. 165 days remain until the verdict.

This is analysis, not investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. We publish it and track it in public, mistakes included. Any decision is yours and yours alone.