Invesaro

Invesaro publishes investment theses and settles them against the market in public: with a date, a basket of companies and a verdict.

Investment thesis

The Iran war prices gasoline, the harvest prices corn: America's ethanol plants sit on the widening gap

LivePublished September 7, 2026120-day horizonsupply and demand
Watch this thesis

In short

  1. What is happening
    Oil extends gains as Tehran vows to widen its exclusion zone near the Strait of Hormuz after US strikes on tankers
  2. Why it matters
    A war driven fuel rally meets a cheap record corn crop, and almost the entire spread lands in the crush margins of US corn ethanol producers.
  3. Who benefits
    Green Plains, REX American Resources, The Andersons, Archer-Daniels-Midland
  4. What must hold
    Assumptions are statements that must stay true for the thesis to make sense.
    Assumptions: 5. See the assumptions
  5. When is the verdict
    The horizon is the time we give a thesis. That many days after publication we settle it: we compare the basket of companies with the market benchmark and give a verdict.
    January 5, 2027, 120 days after publication
  6. Our score at publication
    A score from 0 to 100 given on the day of publication, before the market has verified anything. On the results page we check in public whether higher-scored theses do better.
    58 out of 100
Basket return
+1.1%
equal weight, since publication
The market over the same window
-1.8%
benchmark for this basket
Edge over the market
+2.9%
in percentage points

Companies in the basket

GPREGreen PlainsREXREX American ResourcesANDEThe AndersonsADMArcher-Daniels-Midland

The argument

Two prices, two continents, one spread

The Strait of Hormuz is now a shooting gallery: Washington has struck tankers, Tehran has promised to widen its exclusion zone, and crude keeps grinding higher. Gasoline follows crude with a lag of days. Corn does not. The price of corn is set in Illinois, Iowa and Nebraska by acreage, rainfall and a harvest that is now being cut, and it has no causal link at all to a naval standoff in the Gulf. That disconnect is the whole thesis: one side of the American ethanol equation is being repriced by a war, and the other side is being repriced by a combine.

What this thesis rests on

Each one is a statement that has to be true. We go back to every live thesis on a schedule and check these against public sources, so each leg carries either what we found or the date we look next.

Archive: reviews of this thesis are paused. Last review September 22, 2026.

  1. Front-month CME corn futures settle below 5.00 dollars per bushel on a majority of trading days between publication and 5 January 2027.

    financial · Challenged

    A source challenges this · September 22, 2026

    Front-month corn has settled above $5.00 every session since publication: December corn closed $5.27-1/2 on 18 Sep 2026 and traded to $5.50 on 21 Sep, the highest since July 2023. USDA's 11 Sep WASDE cut 2026/27 yield 2.2 bpa to 178.5, production 213 mbu to 15.8 bb and ending stocks to 1.567 bb. No trading day below $5.00 so far.

    See the source

  2. The EIA weekly US regular retail gasoline price averages above 3.40 dollars per gallon over the 90 days following publication.

    financial · Open

    Checked September 22, 2026, nothing published either way

  3. Green Plains produces at least 200 million gallons of ethanol in the quarter ending 30 September 2026 and idles no additional plant during the horizon.

    operational · Open

    Checked September 22, 2026, nothing published either way

  4. Green Plains reports positive consolidated adjusted EBITDA in each of the two quarters it reports within the horizon.

    financial · Open

    Checked September 22, 2026, nothing published either way

  5. The 45Z clean fuel production credit remains available to corn starch ethanol producers, with no reduction of eligible pathways, through 31 December 2026.

    regulatory · Supported

    A source confirms this · September 22, 2026

    Treasury/IRS released Notice 2026-53 on 8 Sep 2026 (IR-2026-108), setting the 45Z emissions rate table for calendar year 2026 and, with DOE's updated 45ZCF-GREET model, adding regenerative agricultural practices to feedstock carbon-intensity calculations for ethanol producers. The release adds pathways; it removes none for ethanol.

    See the source
Show the causal chain step by step
  1. Hormuz exclusion zone lifts crude and gasoline
  2. Large US corn harvest keeps feedstock cheap
  3. 45Z pays per gallon on carbon intensity
  4. Ethanol sells against gasoline, buys against corn
  5. High pump prices pull E15, E85 and exports
  6. Crush margin widens on a fixed cost base
  7. Corn ethanol producers and grain handlers

This thesis, over time

What has happened since publication. Every entry is computed as of its own date, from price history.

October 7, 2026

Day 30 of 120: basket +1.1%

The first quarter of the horizon is behind this thesis. The equal-weight basket stands at +1.1% since publication day. The benchmark (S&P 500) returned -1.8% over the same window, so the basket is ahead of its market by 2.9 percentage points. The strongest contributor is ANDE (+3.2%), the weakest is GPRE (-2.3%). 90 days remain until the verdict.

September 22, 2026

Review: 1 of 5 assumptions broken

We went back to this thesis on day 15 of 120 and checked each of its 5 assumptions against public sources. Broken by the sources: 1. Confirmed by the sources: 1. No news either way: 3. The equal-weight basket stands at +1.1% since publication day. The benchmark (.INX) returned -1.8% over the same window, so the basket is ahead of its market by 2.9 percentage points. 105 days remain until the verdict.

New theses straight to your inbox

Subscribe and we will send you every new thesis and every verdict. No spam, one-click unsubscribe.

This is analysis, not investment advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. We publish it and track it in public, mistakes included. Any decision is yours and yours alone.