What is Exzeo Group, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Exzeo Group, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $41.87 per share. The share price was $15.21 on September 25, 2026, 64% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $26.11 | +72% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $41.87 | +175% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $71.21 | +368% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $53.80 | $57.52 | $62.07 | $67.75 | $75.06 |
| 8.0% | $44.84 | $47.25 | $50.10 | $53.52 | $57.70 |
| 9.0% | $38.31 | $39.96 | $41.87 | $44.09 | $46.71 |
| 10.0% | $33.37 | $34.54 | $35.87 | $37.39 | $39.14 |
| 11.0% | $29.50 | $30.36 | $31.32 | $32.40 | $33.63 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Exzeo Group, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 2 fiscal years (56.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions