What is Wintrust Financial Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Wintrust Financial Corp's reported free cash flow gives $311.11 per share. The share price was $154.67 on November 10, 2026, 50% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 4.5% | 10.0% | $197.03 | +27% |
| Base | 9.5% | 9.0% | $311.11 | +101% |
| Bull | 14.5% | 8.0% | $538.53 | +248% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $396.92 | $423.32 | $455.59 | $495.93 | $547.79 |
| 8.0% | $332.72 | $349.85 | $370.08 | $394.36 | $424.04 |
| 9.0% | $285.89 | $297.60 | $311.11 | $326.86 | $345.49 |
| 10.0% | $250.28 | $258.60 | $268.04 | $278.82 | $291.26 |
| 11.0% | $222.32 | $228.42 | $235.25 | $242.92 | $251.62 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Wintrust Financial Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (9.3% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions