What is Wintrust Financial Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Wintrust Financial Corp's reported free cash flow gives $310.52 per share. The share price was $146.11 on September 25, 2026, 53% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 4.5% | 10.0% | $196.44 | +34% |
| Base | 9.5% | 9.0% | $310.52 | +113% |
| Bull | 14.5% | 8.0% | $537.94 | +268% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $396.33 | $422.73 | $455.00 | $495.34 | $547.20 |
| 8.0% | $332.14 | $349.26 | $369.49 | $393.78 | $423.46 |
| 9.0% | $285.30 | $297.01 | $310.52 | $326.28 | $344.90 |
| 10.0% | $249.69 | $258.01 | $267.45 | $278.23 | $290.67 |
| 11.0% | $221.73 | $227.84 | $234.66 | $242.33 | $251.03 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Wintrust Financial Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (9.3% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions