What is Winmark Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Winmark Corp's reported free cash flow gives $235.39 per share. The share price was $296.35 on September 25, 2026, 26% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 0.5% | 10.0% | $150.03 | -49% |
| Base | 5.5% | 9.0% | $235.39 | -21% |
| Bull | 10.5% | 8.0% | $405.58 | +37% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $298.04 | $317.12 | $340.43 | $369.57 | $407.04 |
| 8.0% | $251.33 | $263.70 | $278.32 | $295.86 | $317.30 |
| 9.0% | $217.17 | $225.63 | $235.39 | $246.77 | $260.23 |
| 10.0% | $191.14 | $197.15 | $203.97 | $211.76 | $220.75 |
| 11.0% | $170.65 | $175.06 | $179.99 | $185.53 | $191.82 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Winmark Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (5.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions