What is Waters Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Waters Corp's reported free cash flow gives $100.59 per share. The share price was $433.54 on September 25, 2026, 331% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 1.0% | 10.0% | $32.74 | -92% |
| Base | 6.0% | 9.0% | $100.59 | -77% |
| Bull | 11.0% | 8.0% | $227.26 | -48% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $149.45 | $164.36 | $182.58 | $205.37 | $234.66 |
| 8.0% | $112.99 | $122.66 | $134.09 | $147.80 | $164.57 |
| 9.0% | $86.35 | $92.96 | $100.59 | $109.49 | $120.01 |
| 10.0% | $66.06 | $70.76 | $76.09 | $82.18 | $89.20 |
| 11.0% | $50.09 | $53.54 | $57.39 | $61.73 | $66.64 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Waters Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (6.0% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions