What is Vistra Corp. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Vistra Corp.'s reported free cash flow gives $35.67 per share. The share price was $129.91 on November 10, 2026, 264% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 4.0% | 10.0% | $1.23 | -99% |
| Base | 9.0% | 9.0% | $35.67 | -73% |
| Bull | 14.0% | 8.0% | $99.91 | -23% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $60.91 | $68.68 | $78.17 | $90.03 | $105.28 |
| 8.0% | $42.03 | $47.06 | $53.02 | $60.16 | $68.88 |
| 9.0% | $28.25 | $31.70 | $35.67 | $40.30 | $45.78 |
| 10.0% | $17.78 | $20.23 | $23.00 | $26.17 | $29.83 |
| 11.0% | $9.55 | $11.35 | $13.35 | $15.61 | $18.17 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Vistra Corp.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (9.2% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions