What is Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc / MA worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc / MA's reported free cash flow gives $387.95 per share. The share price was $547.89 on November 10, 2026, 41% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 9.0% | 10.0% | $236.73 | -57% |
| Base | 14.0% | 9.0% | $387.95 | -29% |
| Bull | 19.0% | 8.0% | $669.64 | +22% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $501.86 | $537.30 | $580.62 | $634.78 | $704.40 |
| 8.0% | $416.34 | $439.33 | $466.49 | $499.09 | $538.93 |
| 9.0% | $354.10 | $369.82 | $387.95 | $409.10 | $434.11 |
| 10.0% | $306.88 | $318.06 | $330.72 | $345.20 | $361.90 |
| 11.0% | $269.91 | $278.11 | $287.26 | $297.57 | $309.24 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc / MA's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (14.1% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions