What is Universal Insurance Holdings, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Universal Insurance Holdings, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $308.74 per share. The share price was $48.41 on November 10, 2026, 84% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 3.5% | 10.0% | $198.46 | +310% |
| Base | 8.5% | 9.0% | $308.74 | +538% |
| Bull | 13.5% | 8.0% | $528.60 | +992% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $391.20 | $416.50 | $447.44 | $486.10 | $535.81 |
| 8.0% | $329.56 | $345.97 | $365.37 | $388.64 | $417.09 |
| 9.0% | $284.57 | $295.79 | $308.74 | $323.84 | $341.70 |
| 10.0% | $250.33 | $258.31 | $267.36 | $277.69 | $289.62 |
| 11.0% | $223.45 | $229.30 | $235.84 | $243.19 | $251.53 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Universal Insurance Holdings, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (8.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions