What is Ugi Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Ugi Corp's reported free cash flow gives -$1.00 per share. The share price was $36.51 on September 25, 2026, 3,755% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -3.0% | 10.0% | -$11.39 | -131% |
| Base | 2.0% | 9.0% | -$1.00 | -103% |
| Bull | 7.0% | 8.0% | $18.40 | -50% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $6.29 | $8.49 | $11.17 | $14.53 | $18.85 |
| 8.0% | $0.87 | $2.30 | $3.98 | $6.00 | $8.47 |
| 9.0% | -$3.10 | -$2.12 | -$1.00 | $0.31 | $1.86 |
| 10.0% | -$6.13 | -$5.44 | -$4.65 | -$3.75 | -$2.72 |
| 11.0% | -$8.52 | -$8.01 | -$7.44 | -$6.81 | -$6.08 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Ugi Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (2.1% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions