What is Texas Roadhouse, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Texas Roadhouse, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $172.22 per share. The share price was $159.75 on September 25, 2026, 7% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $105.54 | -34% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $172.22 | +8% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $296.37 | +86% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $222.70 | $238.44 | $257.68 | $281.73 | $312.65 |
| 8.0% | $184.77 | $194.98 | $207.05 | $221.52 | $239.22 |
| 9.0% | $157.18 | $164.16 | $172.22 | $181.61 | $192.71 |
| 10.0% | $136.26 | $141.22 | $146.85 | $153.28 | $160.70 |
| 11.0% | $119.89 | $123.53 | $127.60 | $132.17 | $137.36 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Texas Roadhouse, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (19.6% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions