What is Tompkins Financial Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Tompkins Financial Corp's reported free cash flow gives $46.80 per share. The share price was $99.57 on September 25, 2026, 113% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -2.0% | 10.0% | $32.94 | -67% |
| Base | 3.0% | 9.0% | $46.80 | -53% |
| Bull | 8.0% | 8.0% | $72.68 | -27% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $56.59 | $59.55 | $63.17 | $67.70 | $73.51 |
| 8.0% | $49.30 | $51.22 | $53.49 | $56.22 | $59.55 |
| 9.0% | $43.97 | $45.28 | $46.80 | $48.57 | $50.66 |
| 10.0% | $39.90 | $40.83 | $41.89 | $43.10 | $44.50 |
| 11.0% | $36.69 | $37.38 | $38.14 | $39.00 | $39.98 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Tompkins Financial Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (2.9% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions