What is Tompkins Financial Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Tompkins Financial Corp's reported free cash flow gives $53.38 per share. The share price was $100.83 on November 10, 2026, 89% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -2.0% | 10.0% | $39.52 | -61% |
| Base | 3.0% | 9.0% | $53.38 | -47% |
| Bull | 8.0% | 8.0% | $79.27 | -21% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $63.17 | $66.13 | $69.76 | $74.28 | $80.10 |
| 8.0% | $55.89 | $57.81 | $60.08 | $62.80 | $66.13 |
| 9.0% | $50.55 | $51.87 | $53.38 | $55.15 | $57.24 |
| 10.0% | $46.48 | $47.42 | $48.48 | $49.69 | $51.08 |
| 11.0% | $43.28 | $43.96 | $44.73 | $45.59 | $46.56 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Tompkins Financial Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (2.9% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions