What is State Street Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on State Street Corp's reported free cash flow gives $642.52 per share. The share price was $181.34 on September 25, 2026, 72% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -1.5% | 10.0% | $409.53 | +126% |
| Base | 3.5% | 9.0% | $642.52 | +254% |
| Bull | 8.5% | 8.0% | $1,106.94 | +510% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $811.29 | $862.37 | $924.81 | $1,002.86 | $1,103.20 |
| 8.0% | $685.68 | $718.81 | $757.96 | $804.94 | $862.37 |
| 9.0% | $593.73 | $616.38 | $642.52 | $673.01 | $709.04 |
| 10.0% | $523.55 | $539.66 | $557.92 | $578.78 | $602.85 |
| 11.0% | $468.26 | $480.07 | $493.26 | $508.11 | $524.94 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at State Street Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (3.6% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions