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Stocks STT DCF valuation

DCF valuation

What is State Street Corp worth?

With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on State Street Corp's reported free cash flow gives $642.52 per share. The share price was $181.34 on September 25, 2026, 72% below that value.

Inputs from the filings

Free cash flow, fiscal 2025
$10.84B
Average free cash flow, last 5 years
$56M
Cash
$4.29B
balance sheet of June 30, 2026
Debt
$0
not reported, counted as 0
Diluted shares, fiscal 2025
289,019,000
Revenue growth per year, last 5 years
3.6%

Three sets of assumptions

CaseGrowth yrs 1-5Growth yrs 6-10After year 10Discount rateValue per shareValue vs price
Bear-1.5%0.5%2.0%10.0%$409.53+126%
Base3.5%3.0%2.5%9.0%$642.52+254%
Bull8.5%6.0%3.0%8.0%$1,106.94+510%

Sensitivity: base case value per share

Discount rate down the side, growth after year 10 across the top. Everything else as in the base case.

1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
7.0%$811.29$862.37$924.81$1,002.86$1,103.20
8.0%$685.68$718.81$757.96$804.94$862.37
9.0%$593.73$616.38$642.52$673.01$709.04
10.0%$523.55$539.66$557.92$578.78$602.85
11.0%$468.26$480.07$493.26$508.11$524.94

Where the presets come from

Base: years 1 to 5 grow at State Street Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (3.6% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.

Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.

Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.

This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.

Adjust the assumptions

Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.

Adjust the assumptions

State Street Corp company page