What is Simon Property Group Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Simon Property Group Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $110.59 per share. The share price was $234.48 on November 10, 2026, 112% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 1.5% | 10.0% | $37.13 | -84% |
| Base | 6.5% | 9.0% | $110.59 | -53% |
| Bull | 11.5% | 8.0% | $257.07 | +10% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $164.85 | $181.42 | $201.67 | $226.98 | $259.53 |
| 8.0% | $124.36 | $135.10 | $147.80 | $163.04 | $181.66 |
| 9.0% | $94.77 | $102.11 | $110.59 | $120.48 | $132.17 |
| 10.0% | $72.23 | $77.45 | $83.37 | $90.14 | $97.94 |
| 11.0% | $54.50 | $58.33 | $62.61 | $67.42 | $72.88 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Simon Property Group Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (6.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions