What is Simply Good Foods Co worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Simply Good Foods Co's reported free cash flow gives $30.96 per share. The share price was $12.60 on November 9, 2026, 59% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 1.0% | 10.0% | $18.20 | +44% |
| Base | 6.0% | 9.0% | $30.96 | +146% |
| Bull | 11.0% | 8.0% | $54.76 | +335% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $40.14 | $42.94 | $46.36 | $50.65 | $56.15 |
| 8.0% | $33.29 | $35.10 | $37.25 | $39.83 | $42.98 |
| 9.0% | $28.28 | $29.52 | $30.96 | $32.63 | $34.60 |
| 10.0% | $24.47 | $25.35 | $26.35 | $27.49 | $28.82 |
| 11.0% | $21.47 | $22.11 | $22.84 | $23.65 | $24.57 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Simply Good Foods Co's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (6.2% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions