What is Simply Good Foods Co worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Simply Good Foods Co's reported free cash flow gives $39.80 per share. The share price was $9.60 on September 25, 2026, 76% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 7.0% | 10.0% | $23.66 | +146% |
| Base | 12.0% | 9.0% | $39.80 | +315% |
| Bull | 17.0% | 8.0% | $71.94 | +649% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $52.09 | $55.90 | $60.55 | $66.36 | $73.83 |
| 8.0% | $42.88 | $45.35 | $48.26 | $51.76 | $56.03 |
| 9.0% | $36.17 | $37.85 | $39.80 | $42.07 | $44.75 |
| 10.0% | $31.06 | $32.26 | $33.62 | $35.18 | $36.97 |
| 11.0% | $27.07 | $27.94 | $28.93 | $30.03 | $31.29 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Simply Good Foods Co's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (12.2% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions