What is Scotts Miracle-Gro Co worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Scotts Miracle-Gro Co's reported free cash flow gives $16.00 per share. The share price was $50.89 on September 25, 2026, 218% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -8.5% | 10.0% | -$2.54 | -105% |
| Base | -3.5% | 9.0% | $16.00 | -69% |
| Bull | 1.5% | 8.0% | $52.84 | +4% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $28.74 | $32.51 | $37.11 | $42.87 | $50.27 |
| 8.0% | $19.33 | $21.77 | $24.66 | $28.12 | $32.35 |
| 9.0% | $12.40 | $14.07 | $16.00 | $18.25 | $20.90 |
| 10.0% | $7.09 | $8.28 | $9.62 | $11.16 | $12.93 |
| 11.0% | $2.88 | $3.75 | $4.72 | $5.81 | $7.06 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Scotts Miracle-Gro Co's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (-3.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions