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DCF valuation

What is Stepan Co worth?

With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Stepan Co's reported free cash flow gives -$3.64 per share. The share price was $64.53 on September 25, 2026, 1,871% below that value.

Inputs from the filings

Free cash flow, fiscal 2025
$25.4M
Average free cash flow, last 5 years
-$56.8M
Cash
$113.7M
balance sheet of June 30, 2026
Debt
$647.4M
balance sheet of June 30, 2026
Diluted shares, fiscal 2025
22,890,000
Revenue growth per year, last 5 years
4.5%

Three sets of assumptions

CaseGrowth yrs 1-5Growth yrs 6-10After year 10Discount rateValue per shareValue vs price
Bear-0.5%0.5%2.0%10.0%-$11.14-117%
Base4.5%3.5%2.5%9.0%-$3.64-106%
Bull9.5%6.5%3.0%8.0%$10.97-83%

Sensitivity: base case value per share

Discount rate down the side, growth after year 10 across the top. Everything else as in the base case.

1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
7.0%$1.70$3.32$5.31$7.78$10.97
8.0%-$2.28-$1.23$0.02$1.51$3.33
9.0%-$5.19-$4.47-$3.64-$2.67-$1.53
10.0%-$7.41-$6.90-$6.32-$5.66-$4.90
11.0%-$9.16-$8.79-$8.37-$7.90-$7.36

Where the presets come from

Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Stepan Co's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (4.5% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.

Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.

Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.

This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.

Adjust the assumptions

Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.

Adjust the assumptions

Stepan Co company page