What is Stepan Co worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Stepan Co's reported free cash flow gives -$3.64 per share. The share price was $64.53 on September 25, 2026, 1,871% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -0.5% | 10.0% | -$11.14 | -117% |
| Base | 4.5% | 9.0% | -$3.64 | -106% |
| Bull | 9.5% | 8.0% | $10.97 | -83% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $1.70 | $3.32 | $5.31 | $7.78 | $10.97 |
| 8.0% | -$2.28 | -$1.23 | $0.02 | $1.51 | $3.33 |
| 9.0% | -$5.19 | -$4.47 | -$3.64 | -$2.67 | -$1.53 |
| 10.0% | -$7.41 | -$6.90 | -$6.32 | -$5.66 | -$4.90 |
| 11.0% | -$9.16 | -$8.79 | -$8.37 | -$7.90 | -$7.36 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Stepan Co's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (4.5% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions