What is Safety Insurance Group Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Safety Insurance Group Inc's reported free cash flow gives $292.82 per share. The share price was $104.49 on November 10, 2026, 64% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 3.5% | 10.0% | $182.55 | +75% |
| Base | 8.5% | 9.0% | $292.82 | +180% |
| Bull | 13.5% | 8.0% | $512.66 | +391% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $375.27 | $400.57 | $431.50 | $470.17 | $519.87 |
| 8.0% | $313.64 | $330.05 | $349.44 | $372.72 | $401.16 |
| 9.0% | $268.65 | $279.87 | $292.82 | $307.92 | $325.77 |
| 10.0% | $234.42 | $242.40 | $251.44 | $261.78 | $273.70 |
| 11.0% | $207.53 | $213.38 | $219.92 | $227.28 | $235.61 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Safety Insurance Group Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (8.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions