What is Safety Insurance Group Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Safety Insurance Group Inc's reported free cash flow gives $293.62 per share. The share price was $103.51 on September 25, 2026, 65% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 3.5% | 10.0% | $183.36 | +77% |
| Base | 8.5% | 9.0% | $293.62 | +184% |
| Bull | 13.5% | 8.0% | $513.46 | +396% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $376.08 | $401.38 | $432.31 | $470.97 | $520.68 |
| 8.0% | $314.44 | $330.85 | $350.25 | $373.52 | $401.97 |
| 9.0% | $269.46 | $280.68 | $293.62 | $308.73 | $326.58 |
| 10.0% | $235.23 | $243.20 | $252.25 | $262.58 | $274.51 |
| 11.0% | $208.34 | $214.19 | $220.73 | $228.08 | $236.42 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Safety Insurance Group Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (8.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions