What is Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc's reported free cash flow gives -$0.64 per share. The share price was $7.25 on September 25, 2026, 1,226% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 2.0% | 10.0% | -$3.44 | -147% |
| Base | 7.0% | 9.0% | -$0.64 | -109% |
| Bull | 12.0% | 8.0% | $4.57 | -37% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $1.38 | $2.00 | $2.76 | $3.70 | $4.92 |
| 8.0% | -$0.13 | $0.27 | $0.75 | $1.31 | $2.01 |
| 9.0% | -$1.24 | -$0.96 | -$0.64 | -$0.27 | $0.16 |
| 10.0% | -$2.08 | -$1.88 | -$1.66 | -$1.41 | -$1.11 |
| 11.0% | -$2.74 | -$2.59 | -$2.43 | -$2.25 | -$2.05 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (6.9% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions