What is PayPal Holdings, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on PayPal Holdings, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $130.00 per share. The share price was $55.04 on September 25, 2026, 58% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 4.0% | 10.0% | $78.09 | +42% |
| Base | 9.0% | 9.0% | $130.00 | +136% |
| Bull | 14.0% | 8.0% | $226.85 | +312% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $168.05 | $179.75 | $194.06 | $211.94 | $234.93 |
| 8.0% | $139.59 | $147.18 | $156.15 | $166.91 | $180.07 |
| 9.0% | $118.82 | $124.01 | $130.00 | $136.98 | $145.24 |
| 10.0% | $103.03 | $106.72 | $110.90 | $115.68 | $121.20 |
| 11.0% | $90.63 | $93.34 | $96.36 | $99.76 | $103.62 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at PayPal Holdings, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (9.1% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions