What is PayPal Holdings, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on PayPal Holdings, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $127.63 per share. The share price was $58.78 on November 10, 2026, 54% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 4.0% | 10.0% | $75.72 | +29% |
| Base | 9.0% | 9.0% | $127.63 | +117% |
| Bull | 14.0% | 8.0% | $224.48 | +282% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $165.68 | $177.38 | $191.69 | $209.57 | $232.56 |
| 8.0% | $137.22 | $144.81 | $153.78 | $164.54 | $177.70 |
| 9.0% | $116.45 | $121.64 | $127.63 | $134.62 | $142.87 |
| 10.0% | $100.66 | $104.35 | $108.53 | $113.31 | $118.83 |
| 11.0% | $88.26 | $90.97 | $93.99 | $97.39 | $101.25 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at PayPal Holdings, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (9.1% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions