What is Post Holdings, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Post Holdings, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $129.87 per share. The share price was $73.15 on September 25, 2026, 44% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 9.5% | 10.0% | $35.50 | -51% |
| Base | 14.5% | 9.0% | $129.87 | +78% |
| Bull | 19.5% | 8.0% | $317.82 | +334% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $202.84 | $225.55 | $253.31 | $288.00 | $332.61 |
| 8.0% | $148.06 | $162.78 | $180.19 | $201.08 | $226.60 |
| 9.0% | $108.18 | $118.25 | $129.87 | $143.43 | $159.45 |
| 10.0% | $77.93 | $85.09 | $93.21 | $102.49 | $113.19 |
| 11.0% | $54.26 | $59.51 | $65.37 | $71.97 | $79.45 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Post Holdings, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 4 fiscal years (14.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions