What is Polaris Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Polaris Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $122.88 per share. The share price was $53.03 on September 25, 2026, 57% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -2.5% | 10.0% | $64.35 | +21% |
| Base | 2.5% | 9.0% | $122.88 | +132% |
| Bull | 7.5% | 8.0% | $236.87 | +347% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $164.03 | $176.45 | $191.62 | $210.59 | $234.98 |
| 8.0% | $133.43 | $141.48 | $151.00 | $162.42 | $176.38 |
| 9.0% | $111.02 | $116.53 | $122.88 | $130.29 | $139.05 |
| 10.0% | $93.90 | $97.82 | $102.26 | $107.33 | $113.18 |
| 11.0% | $80.41 | $83.28 | $86.49 | $90.09 | $94.18 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Polaris Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (2.6% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions