What is Pagaya Technologies Ltd. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Pagaya Technologies Ltd.'s reported free cash flow gives $92.32 per share. The share price was $17.22 on November 10, 2026, 81% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $57.26 | +233% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $92.32 | +436% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $157.60 | +815% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $118.87 | $127.14 | $137.26 | $149.90 | $166.16 |
| 8.0% | $98.93 | $104.29 | $110.64 | $118.25 | $127.55 |
| 9.0% | $84.42 | $88.09 | $92.32 | $97.26 | $103.10 |
| 10.0% | $73.42 | $76.03 | $78.98 | $82.36 | $86.26 |
| 11.0% | $64.81 | $66.72 | $68.86 | $71.27 | $73.99 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Pagaya Technologies Ltd.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (67.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions