What is Pagaya Technologies Ltd. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Pagaya Technologies Ltd.'s reported free cash flow gives $92.35 per share. The share price was $17.62 on September 25, 2026, 81% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $57.29 | +225% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $92.35 | +424% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $157.63 | +795% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $118.89 | $127.17 | $137.28 | $149.93 | $166.19 |
| 8.0% | $98.95 | $104.32 | $110.66 | $118.27 | $127.58 |
| 9.0% | $84.44 | $88.11 | $92.35 | $97.29 | $103.13 |
| 10.0% | $73.44 | $76.05 | $79.01 | $82.39 | $86.29 |
| 11.0% | $64.83 | $66.75 | $68.89 | $71.29 | $74.02 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Pagaya Technologies Ltd.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (67.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions