What is Puma Biotechnology, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Puma Biotechnology, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $12.26 per share. The share price was $9.77 on September 25, 2026, 20% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -4.5% | 10.0% | $7.93 | -19% |
| Base | 0.5% | 9.0% | $12.26 | +25% |
| Bull | 5.5% | 8.0% | $20.69 | +112% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $15.26 | $16.16 | $17.26 | $18.64 | $20.40 |
| 8.0% | $13.03 | $13.62 | $14.31 | $15.14 | $16.15 |
| 9.0% | $11.40 | $11.80 | $12.26 | $12.80 | $13.43 |
| 10.0% | $10.15 | $10.44 | $10.76 | $11.12 | $11.55 |
| 11.0% | $9.16 | $9.37 | $9.61 | $9.87 | $10.16 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Puma Biotechnology, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (0.3% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions