What is Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Par Pacific Holdings, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $179.12 per share. The share price was $77.46 on September 25, 2026, 57% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $104.62 | +35% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $179.12 | +131% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $317.84 | +310% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $235.52 | $253.11 | $274.60 | $301.47 | $336.02 |
| 8.0% | $193.15 | $204.55 | $218.03 | $234.21 | $253.98 |
| 9.0% | $162.32 | $170.12 | $179.12 | $189.61 | $202.02 |
| 10.0% | $138.94 | $144.49 | $150.77 | $157.96 | $166.24 |
| 11.0% | $120.65 | $124.72 | $129.26 | $134.37 | $140.17 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Par Pacific Holdings, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (19.0% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions