What is Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Par Pacific Holdings, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $194.41 per share. The share price was $68.61 on November 9, 2026, 65% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $119.91 | +75% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $194.41 | +183% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $333.13 | +386% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $250.82 | $268.40 | $289.90 | $316.77 | $351.32 |
| 8.0% | $208.44 | $219.85 | $233.33 | $249.50 | $269.27 |
| 9.0% | $177.62 | $185.41 | $194.41 | $204.91 | $217.31 |
| 10.0% | $154.24 | $159.78 | $166.07 | $173.25 | $181.54 |
| 11.0% | $135.95 | $140.01 | $144.56 | $149.67 | $155.46 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Par Pacific Holdings, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (19.0% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions