What is Occidental Petroleum Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Occidental Petroleum Corp's reported free cash flow gives $64.29 per share. The share price was $56.90 on November 10, 2026, 12% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -1.0% | 10.0% | $37.11 | -35% |
| Base | 4.0% | 9.0% | $64.29 | +13% |
| Bull | 9.0% | 8.0% | $115.06 | +102% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $83.62 | $89.49 | $96.66 | $105.62 | $117.14 |
| 8.0% | $69.23 | $73.03 | $77.52 | $82.92 | $89.51 |
| 9.0% | $58.69 | $61.29 | $64.29 | $67.80 | $71.93 |
| 10.0% | $50.66 | $52.51 | $54.60 | $57.00 | $59.76 |
| 11.0% | $44.33 | $45.69 | $47.20 | $48.91 | $50.84 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Occidental Petroleum Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (3.9% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions