What is Occidental Petroleum Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Occidental Petroleum Corp's reported free cash flow gives $62.66 per share. The share price was $56.86 on September 25, 2026, 9% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -1.0% | 10.0% | $35.47 | -38% |
| Base | 4.0% | 9.0% | $62.66 | +10% |
| Bull | 9.0% | 8.0% | $113.42 | +99% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $81.98 | $87.85 | $95.02 | $103.98 | $115.50 |
| 8.0% | $67.59 | $71.39 | $75.89 | $81.28 | $87.87 |
| 9.0% | $57.05 | $59.65 | $62.66 | $66.16 | $70.29 |
| 10.0% | $49.02 | $50.87 | $52.96 | $55.36 | $58.12 |
| 11.0% | $42.69 | $44.05 | $45.56 | $47.27 | $49.20 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Occidental Petroleum Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (3.9% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions