What is Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $71.21 per share. The share price was $84.25 on September 25, 2026, 18% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 3.0% | 10.0% | $44.45 | -47% |
| Base | 8.0% | 9.0% | $71.21 | -15% |
| Bull | 13.0% | 8.0% | $121.16 | +44% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $90.72 | $96.70 | $104.02 | $113.16 | $124.92 |
| 8.0% | $76.14 | $80.02 | $84.61 | $90.11 | $96.84 |
| 9.0% | $65.50 | $68.15 | $71.21 | $74.79 | $79.01 |
| 10.0% | $57.40 | $59.29 | $61.43 | $63.87 | $66.69 |
| 11.0% | $51.04 | $52.42 | $53.97 | $55.71 | $57.68 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (7.9% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions