What is Organon & Co. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Organon & Co.'s reported free cash flow gives -$1.82 per share. The share price was $13.73 on September 25, 2026, 855% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -6.0% | 10.0% | -$11.76 | -186% |
| Base | -1.0% | 9.0% | -$1.82 | -113% |
| Bull | 4.0% | 8.0% | $16.74 | +22% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $5.01 | $7.05 | $9.54 | $12.66 | $16.66 |
| 8.0% | -$0.05 | $1.27 | $2.83 | $4.71 | $7.00 |
| 9.0% | -$3.77 | -$2.86 | -$1.82 | -$0.60 | $0.84 |
| 10.0% | -$6.61 | -$5.97 | -$5.24 | -$4.41 | -$3.45 |
| 11.0% | -$8.86 | -$8.39 | -$7.86 | -$7.27 | -$6.60 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Organon & Co.'s revenue growth rate over the last 4 fiscal years (-1.2% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions