What is Nvr Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Nvr Inc's reported free cash flow gives $7,526.68 per share. The share price was $6,297.60 on September 25, 2026, 16% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 1.5% | 10.0% | $4,850.89 | -23% |
| Base | 6.5% | 9.0% | $7,526.68 | +20% |
| Bull | 11.5% | 8.0% | $12,861.82 | +104% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $9,503.18 | $10,106.62 | $10,844.15 | $11,766.08 | $12,951.40 |
| 8.0% | $8,028.21 | $8,419.54 | $8,882.02 | $9,436.99 | $10,115.29 |
| 9.0% | $6,950.40 | $7,217.96 | $7,526.68 | $7,886.86 | $8,312.53 |
| 10.0% | $6,129.32 | $6,319.59 | $6,535.24 | $6,781.69 | $7,066.05 |
| 11.0% | $5,483.69 | $5,623.18 | $5,779.08 | $5,954.47 | $6,153.25 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Nvr Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (6.5% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions