What is Nvr Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Nvr Inc's reported free cash flow gives $7,517.65 per share. The share price was $6,338.38 on November 9, 2026, 16% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 1.5% | 10.0% | $4,841.86 | -24% |
| Base | 6.5% | 9.0% | $7,517.65 | +19% |
| Bull | 11.5% | 8.0% | $12,852.79 | +103% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $9,494.14 | $10,097.58 | $10,835.12 | $11,757.04 | $12,942.37 |
| 8.0% | $8,019.17 | $8,410.50 | $8,872.98 | $9,427.96 | $10,106.26 |
| 9.0% | $6,941.37 | $7,208.93 | $7,517.65 | $7,877.83 | $8,303.49 |
| 10.0% | $6,120.29 | $6,310.56 | $6,526.20 | $6,772.65 | $7,057.02 |
| 11.0% | $5,474.66 | $5,614.15 | $5,770.05 | $5,945.44 | $6,144.21 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Nvr Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (6.5% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions