What is National Bankshares Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on National Bankshares Inc's reported free cash flow gives $59.01 per share. The share price was $42.37 on September 25, 2026, 28% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 2.5% | 10.0% | $40.04 | -5% |
| Base | 7.5% | 9.0% | $59.01 | +39% |
| Bull | 12.5% | 8.0% | $96.83 | +129% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $73.11 | $77.42 | $82.70 | $89.29 | $97.77 |
| 8.0% | $62.58 | $65.38 | $68.68 | $72.65 | $77.50 |
| 9.0% | $54.89 | $56.80 | $59.01 | $61.59 | $64.63 |
| 10.0% | $49.04 | $50.40 | $51.94 | $53.70 | $55.73 |
| 11.0% | $44.44 | $45.43 | $46.55 | $47.80 | $49.22 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at National Bankshares Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (7.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions