What is nCino, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on nCino, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $22.18 per share. The share price was $19.41 on September 25, 2026, 12% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $12.82 | -34% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $22.18 | +14% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $39.61 | +104% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $29.26 | $31.47 | $34.17 | $37.55 | $41.89 |
| 8.0% | $23.94 | $25.37 | $27.07 | $29.10 | $31.58 |
| 9.0% | $20.07 | $21.05 | $22.18 | $23.50 | $25.05 |
| 10.0% | $17.13 | $17.83 | $18.62 | $19.52 | $20.56 |
| 11.0% | $14.83 | $15.34 | $15.91 | $16.55 | $17.28 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at nCino, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 4 fiscal years (30.6% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions