What is Nbt Bancorp Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Nbt Bancorp Inc's reported free cash flow gives $86.81 per share. The share price was $51.57 on September 25, 2026, 41% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 0.5% | 10.0% | $56.53 | +10% |
| Base | 5.5% | 9.0% | $86.81 | +68% |
| Bull | 10.5% | 8.0% | $147.18 | +185% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $109.03 | $115.80 | $124.07 | $134.41 | $147.70 |
| 8.0% | $92.46 | $96.85 | $102.04 | $108.26 | $115.87 |
| 9.0% | $80.35 | $83.35 | $86.81 | $90.85 | $95.62 |
| 10.0% | $71.11 | $73.24 | $75.66 | $78.42 | $81.61 |
| 11.0% | $63.84 | $65.41 | $67.15 | $69.12 | $71.35 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Nbt Bancorp Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (5.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions