What is Nbt Bancorp Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Nbt Bancorp Inc's reported free cash flow gives $87.35 per share. The share price was $53.41 on November 10, 2026, 39% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 0.5% | 10.0% | $57.07 | +7% |
| Base | 5.5% | 9.0% | $87.35 | +64% |
| Bull | 10.5% | 8.0% | $147.72 | +177% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $109.57 | $116.34 | $124.61 | $134.95 | $148.24 |
| 8.0% | $93.00 | $97.39 | $102.58 | $108.80 | $116.41 |
| 9.0% | $80.89 | $83.89 | $87.35 | $91.39 | $96.16 |
| 10.0% | $71.65 | $73.78 | $76.20 | $78.97 | $82.15 |
| 11.0% | $64.38 | $65.95 | $67.70 | $69.66 | $71.89 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Nbt Bancorp Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (5.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions