What is Microsoft Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Microsoft Corp's reported free cash flow gives $283.48 per share. The share price was $516.17 on September 25, 2026, 82% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 9.5% | 10.0% | $174.17 | -66% |
| Base | 14.5% | 9.0% | $283.48 | -45% |
| Bull | 19.5% | 8.0% | $501.17 | -3% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $368.00 | $394.30 | $426.45 | $466.64 | $518.31 |
| 8.0% | $304.55 | $321.60 | $341.76 | $365.96 | $395.52 |
| 9.0% | $258.36 | $270.02 | $283.48 | $299.18 | $317.74 |
| 10.0% | $223.33 | $231.62 | $241.02 | $251.76 | $264.16 |
| 11.0% | $195.90 | $201.98 | $208.78 | $216.42 | $225.09 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Microsoft Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (14.6% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions