What is Merck & Co., Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Merck & Co., Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $99.75 per share. The share price was $148.78 on September 25, 2026, 49% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 4.5% | 10.0% | $55.37 | -63% |
| Base | 9.5% | 9.0% | $99.75 | -33% |
| Bull | 14.5% | 8.0% | $188.23 | +27% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $133.13 | $143.40 | $155.96 | $171.65 | $191.83 |
| 8.0% | $108.16 | $114.82 | $122.69 | $132.14 | $143.68 |
| 9.0% | $89.94 | $94.49 | $99.75 | $105.88 | $113.12 |
| 10.0% | $76.08 | $79.32 | $82.99 | $87.19 | $92.03 |
| 11.0% | $65.21 | $67.58 | $70.23 | $73.22 | $76.60 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Merck & Co., Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (9.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions