What is Merck & Co., Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Merck & Co., Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $101.38 per share. The share price was $148.05 on November 10, 2026, 46% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 4.5% | 10.0% | $57.00 | -62% |
| Base | 9.5% | 9.0% | $101.38 | -32% |
| Bull | 14.5% | 8.0% | $189.86 | +28% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $134.76 | $145.04 | $157.59 | $173.28 | $193.46 |
| 8.0% | $109.79 | $116.45 | $124.32 | $133.77 | $145.32 |
| 9.0% | $91.57 | $96.12 | $101.38 | $107.51 | $114.76 |
| 10.0% | $77.71 | $80.95 | $84.62 | $88.82 | $93.66 |
| 11.0% | $66.84 | $69.21 | $71.87 | $74.85 | $78.24 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Merck & Co., Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (9.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions