What is Morningstar, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Morningstar, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $257.89 per share. The share price was $195.98 on September 25, 2026, 24% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 7.0% | 10.0% | $149.11 | -24% |
| Base | 12.0% | 9.0% | $257.89 | +32% |
| Bull | 17.0% | 8.0% | $474.60 | +142% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $340.80 | $366.44 | $397.77 | $436.94 | $487.30 |
| 8.0% | $278.68 | $295.30 | $314.95 | $338.53 | $367.35 |
| 9.0% | $233.40 | $244.77 | $257.89 | $273.19 | $291.28 |
| 10.0% | $199.01 | $207.10 | $216.26 | $226.73 | $238.81 |
| 11.0% | $172.05 | $177.98 | $184.60 | $192.05 | $200.50 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Morningstar, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (12.0% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions