What is Moog Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Moog Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $51.99 per share. The share price was $387.80 on September 25, 2026, 646% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 1.0% | 10.0% | $21.97 | -94% |
| Base | 6.0% | 9.0% | $51.99 | -87% |
| Bull | 11.0% | 8.0% | $108.05 | -72% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $73.61 | $80.21 | $88.28 | $98.36 | $111.32 |
| 8.0% | $57.48 | $61.76 | $66.82 | $72.89 | $80.30 |
| 9.0% | $45.69 | $48.62 | $51.99 | $55.93 | $60.59 |
| 10.0% | $36.71 | $38.79 | $41.15 | $43.84 | $46.95 |
| 11.0% | $29.65 | $31.17 | $32.88 | $34.80 | $36.97 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Moog Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (6.0% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions