Invesaro

Stocks MIDD DCF valuation

DCF valuation

What is MIDDLEBY Corp worth?

With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on MIDDLEBY Corp's reported free cash flow gives $162.72 per share. The share price was $107.66 on September 25, 2026, 34% below that value.

Inputs from the filings

Free cash flow, fiscal 2025
$559.5M
Average free cash flow, last 5 years
$484.3M
Cash
$159.2M
balance sheet of July 4, 2026
Debt
$1.98B
balance sheet of July 4, 2026
Diluted shares, fiscal 2025
52,179,000
Revenue growth per year, last 5 years
5.0%

Three sets of assumptions

CaseGrowth yrs 1-5Growth yrs 6-10After year 10Discount rateValue per shareValue vs price
Bear0.0%1.0%2.0%10.0%$87.11-19%
Base5.0%4.0%2.5%9.0%$162.72+51%
Bull10.0%6.5%3.0%8.0%$303.88+182%

Sensitivity: base case value per share

Discount rate down the side, growth after year 10 across the top. Everything else as in the base case.

1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
7.0%$216.81$233.28$253.40$278.56$310.90
8.0%$176.48$187.16$199.78$214.92$233.43
9.0%$146.99$154.29$162.72$172.54$184.16
10.0%$124.51$129.70$135.59$142.31$150.07
11.0%$106.82$110.63$114.88$119.66$125.09

Where the presets come from

Base: years 1 to 5 grow at MIDDLEBY Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (5.0% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.

Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.

Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.

This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.

Adjust the assumptions

Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.

Adjust the assumptions

MIDDLEBY Corp company page