What is MGM Resorts International worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on MGM Resorts International's reported free cash flow gives $162.22 per share. The share price was $32.74 on November 10, 2026, 80% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $93.93 | +187% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $162.22 | +395% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $289.37 | +784% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $213.92 | $230.04 | $249.74 | $274.37 | $306.04 |
| 8.0% | $175.08 | $185.54 | $197.89 | $212.72 | $230.84 |
| 9.0% | $146.82 | $153.97 | $162.22 | $171.84 | $183.21 |
| 10.0% | $125.40 | $130.48 | $136.24 | $142.82 | $150.42 |
| 11.0% | $108.63 | $112.36 | $116.52 | $121.21 | $126.52 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at MGM Resorts International's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (27.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions