What is MGM Resorts International worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on MGM Resorts International's reported free cash flow gives $161.32 per share. The share price was $32.58 on September 25, 2026, 80% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $93.04 | +186% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $161.32 | +395% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $288.48 | +785% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $213.03 | $229.15 | $248.85 | $273.48 | $305.14 |
| 8.0% | $174.19 | $184.64 | $197.00 | $211.82 | $229.94 |
| 9.0% | $145.93 | $153.08 | $161.32 | $170.95 | $182.32 |
| 10.0% | $124.50 | $129.59 | $135.35 | $141.93 | $149.53 |
| 11.0% | $107.74 | $111.46 | $115.63 | $120.31 | $125.62 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at MGM Resorts International's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (27.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions